For over a decade, the Russian Federation has waged an unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine. It began in February 2014 with the occupation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, at a time when the Revolution of Dignity was taking place in Ukraine, and the Ukrainian people had made a strategic choice in favor of democracy and Euro-Atlantic integration.
Since February 2022, Russia’s neo-imperial leadership has escalated its aggression, deploying additional troops and occupying new Ukrainian territories. The Russian-Ukrainian war is now the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II. Every day, over 10,000 Russian artillery shells and numerous long-range drones and missiles target Ukrainian territory, with some violating NATO airspace.
The frontline in Ukraine spans about 3,200 kilometers (2,000 miles), and the area of Ukrainian territories temporarily occupied by Russia exceeds 108,000 square kilometers (41,000 square miles) —approximately the size of New York State or Louisiana, or 25% of California.
To counter Russia’s 140-million population, Ukraine has increased its Defense Forces to over 1.1 million troops, ramped up domestic production of weapons, ammunition, and drones, and called on Western countries for increased military and technical aid.
In 2022, Ukraine repelled Russia’s full-scale offensive on Kyiv, its capital, liberated occupied territories in the north, partially pushed back Russian forces in the east near Kharkiv, and freed Kherson, which is the center of Kherson Oblast, in the south.
However, in 2024, Russia intensified its military efforts and resumed its offensive against Ukraine, continuing missile strikes across Ukrainian territory. Ukraine is critically dependent on Western assistance for weapons, military equipment, air defense systems, and financial and humanitarian aid. US leadership is pivotal in this regard.
Russia receives active support from dictatorial regimes in China, Iran, North Korea, and Belarus.
European governments and military analysts warn that Ukraine’s defeat would trigger a new multi-million refugee wave, a humanitarian catastrophe in Europe, a global security crisis, and further aggression from Russia and its allies aimed at other countries.
Financial losses from a potential Russian victory are projected to far exceed the cost of ongoing Western aid to Ukraine, which currently helps Ukraine maintain its independence and pro-Western development.
Russia began an armed occupation of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, starting the first continental war in Europe in the 21st century and undermining post-World War II global security.
Russia announced the annexation of Crimea. The UN General Assembly declared the sham referendum on “secession” from Ukraine and Russia’s occupation of Crimea illegal.
Russia began occupying parts of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The Russian Federation deployed regular army units to the border with Ukraine. Moscow-controlled armed groups seized government buildings in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. Russian proxy forces, with the involvement of Russian special units, declared the creation of so-called people’s republics on the territory of Ukraine.
Ukraine launched an anti-terrorist operation (ATO). As early as May, the Ukrainian Armed Forces and volunteer battalions began to liberate Ukrainian cities, towns and villages occupied by Russian forces. By September 2014, Ukraine had liberated more than two-thirds of the occupied territories and more than 100 settlements.
The Russians shot down a civilian Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 near the village of Hrabove in Donetsk Oblast with a missile fired from a Buk anti-aircraft missile system, belonging to the 53rd Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces. All passengers and crew of flight MH17, 298 people in total, were killed. US citizen Quinn Schansman, 18, was among the deceased. (On 17 November 2022, the District Court of The Hague found former Russian FSB officer Igor Girkin, retired Russian military officers Sergei Dubinsky and Oleg Pulatov, and a fighter from the Russian proxy formation Leonid Kharchenko guilty of this crime).
Ukrainian forces came close to encircling and localising Russian proxy forces and special units in Donetsk and Luhansk. After that, regular military units of the Russian Armed Forces invaded the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. As of August 2014, there were about 3,500-6,500 Russian soldiers on Ukraine’s territory. In December 2014, their number reached 10,000.
Ukraine, Russia and the OSCE signed the Minsk Agreements, later called Minsk-1, a trilateral agreement on a temporary ceasefire in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Russia later insisted that the puppet entities of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic, formed by the Kremlin in occupied territories, were also the parties to the agreements, while Ukraine did not recognize their agency.
The battle for Donetsk Airport (DAP), a strategic facility in the west of Donetsk that Ukrainian units held for over 240 days against overwhelming Russian occupation forces, came to an end. The defense of the Donetsk airport became a benchmark defense operation and a symbol of the incredible resilience of Ukrainians. The soldiers who defended the airport became known as “cyborgs”.
Ukraine, Russia and the OSCE signed the so-called Minsk-2 agreements to implement the Minsk Protocol on a temporary ceasefire (Minsk-1), signed in September. Despite these agreements, Russia has not stopped fighting in Ukraine’s east.
The end of the battle for the Debaltseve wedge. The town of Debaltseve is an important strategic hub that the Ukrainian military held while being semi-encircled. To occupy Debaltseve, Russia lacked the capabilities of its secret services and proxy forces, and for the second time since the beginning of the war, it used a large number of its regular troops.
Russian regular troops continued fighting against Ukrainians in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, holding the occupied territories. In general, the fighting was less intense than in the first year of the war. However, there were several escalations of combat actions. In particular, a local Ukrainian offensive in the south of Donetsk Oblast led to the liberation of the village of Shyrokyne east of Mariupol and reduced the threat of Russian attacks on the city. Also, intensified fighting near Svitlodarsk and a confrontation in the industrial zone of Avdiivka allowed Ukrainians to push Russian troops from the outskirts of the city.
2015-2018. Russian regular troops continued fighting against Ukrainians in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, holding the occupied territories. In general, the fighting was less intense than in the first year of the war. However, there were several escalations of combat actions. In particular, a local Ukrainian offensive in the south of Donetsk Oblast led to the liberation of the village of Shyrokyne east of Mariupol and reduced the threat of Russian attacks on the city. Also, intensified fighting near Svitlodarsk and a confrontation in the industrial zone of Avdiivka allowed Ukrainians to push Russian troops from the outskirts of the city.